AGIBOT is reportedly aiming for an IPO with a valuation of $20 billion, having brought in CITIC Securities as its sponsoring broker. AGIBOT projects revenue of 4 billion RMB in 2026.
According to Unitree’s projected revenue of 1.052 billion-1.128 billion RMB for the first half of 2026 and over 2 billion RMB for the full year, if AGIBOT achieves 4 billion RMB in revenue, it will significantly outpace Unitree in sales, becoming the undisputed leader in the embodied technology market.
A key reason for AGIBOT’s lead over Unitree is its shipments to industrial applications. Beyond traditional performance and research scenarios, AGIBOT is beginning to ship to industrial applications. The industrial market is larger than performance and research, and is a key target for embodied technology companies.
Industrial and commercial applications are arguably the two markets with the greatest future shipment potential.
The IPO of AGIBOT will have a significant impact on the current hot fundraising efforts of embodied intelligence companies. Firstly, this determines the valuation logic for embody startups in the secondary market.
Many embody startups are preparing for a Hong Kong IPO using the 18C route. For these startups, which are still in the loss-making stage and haven’t yet achieved commercialization, the question arises: how will the secondary market value embody intelligence? If Zhiyuan, with the highest revenue and most comprehensive business layout, successfully IPOs, then the secondary market will have a valuation anchor.
Zhiyuan’s 4 billion RMB revenue corresponds to a valuation of 20 billion USD, or over 150 billion RMB, based on a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 40. The price-to-sales ratio is the ratio of market capitalization to revenue, a crucial valuation metric in the secondary market, applicable to unprofitable or high-growth companies in the internet and high-tech sectors.
If the leading company, Zhiyuan, has a price-to-sales ratio of 40, it will become the anchor for the valuation logic of other embody companies. In other words, if other embody companies IPO, the maximum valuation the secondary market will give them is 40 times their revenue.
This puts considerable pressure on many leading embody companies. Companies like Galaxy, Xinghaitu, Qianxun, and Ziyangv, with valuations exceeding 20 billion yuan, need revenues of over 500 million yuan to justify such valuations.
Secondly, this determines whether the booming primary market financing can be sustained.
Many spun asset companies this year have achieved valuations exceeding 10 or 20 billion yuan by playing the pre-IPO card, with investors rushing in with IPO in mind. Many spun asset companies are overly optimistic about IPOs, failing to grasp the hard logic between revenue and valuation. Moreover, with the exception of a few companies, most have revenues below 100 million yuan.
Therefore, for spun asset companies with low revenues, the IPO race is destined to be difficult. If the IPO fails, or even if it succeeds, the valuations in the primary and secondary markets are inverted, resulting in losses for investment institutions. This would mark a turning point for the booming spun asset financing market.
In fact, a similar story played out three years ago in the autonomous driving sector, with 2023 being the turning point for autonomous driving financing. In the two years prior to 2023, funding for autonomous driving was as hot as it is now, best described as “flourishing” and “overflowing with enthusiasm.”
First, startups developing L4 autonomous driving systems, passenger vehicle intelligent driving systems, sensors, LiDAR, domain control middleware, and basic operating systems could easily raise funds. Many investment institutions invested in every sub-segment of the industry chain. Second, much like with Jisheng Intelligence today, leading companies were raising three or four rounds of funding a year, each round larger than the last, with valuations soaring.
This euphoric period ended in 2023, as many autonomous driving companies went public. For investment institutions, an IPO is the moment the mystery of profit or loss is revealed.
The 2023 autonomous driving IPOs saw a widespread phenomenon of valuation inversion between the primary and secondary markets. Some leading companies even saw their post-IPO market capitalization fall to half of their pre-IPO valuation, meaning that investors who invested directly lost half their initial investment.
The valuation inversion between primary and secondary markets has made even institutions with weak industry research capabilities aware of the risks, leading to widespread caution. Starting in 2023, investment institutions shifted from a “broad-based” approach to a “focused” strategy, investing only in companies with solid and stable mass production and delivery records. Therefore, the number of customers, the number of vehicle projects completed, and the revenue generated became the most important performance indicators.
After 2023, companies in the autonomous driving sector that have consistently received funding have almost exclusively been those with strong mass production and delivery records.
Therefore, whether the booming autonomous driving financing market can continue will become clear as these companies rush to IPO.
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